Saturday, February 26, 2011

Technology's Promise | William E. Halal | Macmillan

  Technology's Promise | William E. Halal | Macmillan 



Analysis of a prediction in Technology’s Promise by William E. Halal
We have often heard that necessity is the mother of invention. The article on nanotechnology and infinite power devices was a sight for sore eyes. *grins* We have been tethered to laptop and cell phone power cords for far too long. One can usually find a hot spot in almost any coffee shop these days, but a power outlet is another story. *chuckles* It was very excited to finally see light at the end of the tunnel. It was mentioned that with nanotechnology electricity moves with 100 times less resistance than current wire materials so devices just don’t need as much power and the charging time is instant. We will finally get instant-on computers and other devices because we don’t have to wait for battery chemicals to charge. The nano devices simply store the charge between two plates. I just hope they find a way to recycle all those Ever-readies and Duracels. I also have a Cisco Network background and can foresee that we will have faster download speeds and crystal clear phone signals. Currently, many network devices don’t use error correction because it slows down the transmissions. Nano tech will definitely be a game changer.*smiles* Halal’s article also mentioned that there will be a profound impact on medical treatments, something that we have been waiting for far too long. A cure for cancer alone would be a huge breakthrough. It was mentioned that these devices will be ripe around 2015 to 2020. I wasn’t too clear on what an elevator to space would buy us, I personally get claustrophobic on elevators that a more than a few stories, let alone 62,000 miles. The only thing that kind of disturbed me about the article was that the nano research was being done all over the world and we already know what humans sometimes do with too much power. *grins*
*waves*
Jim Thomas

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Innovation Idea - Embedded Link - James Thomas


Create your own video slideshow at animoto.com.

Animoto Video - Mobile Commerce - CS855 - James Thomas

Socio-Technical Plan - Podcast Video - CS855 Class

The following is a podcast discussion on a Socio-Technical plan for a fictional book publishing company named Thomason-Roiters.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TeG_7BC8Qwg

Web 2.0 for Corps - Roll Stream

Today, many companies are struggling to understand how to capitalize on Social Media technologies. Web 2.0 is making it easier for them to draw the connection. In a recent ZDNet article Web 2.0 Technologies to Watch Roll Stream's Web 2.0 tool was introduced.  Anyone that has had to oversee contractors can appreciate the value that these tools bring.  1) They allow the vendors to self register and manage their own profiles.  This saves time and as their parts and services change they are responsible for maintaining them.  One of my recent clients paid a company over half a million to cleanup their parts inventory catalogue data because the part numbers, manufacturer names and descriptions were all garbage.  2) These tools allow better vendor communications with the end users as well as the purchasing department so there is less confusion caused by the "middle-man".  Roll stream is one set of tools that truly helps with business to business communities.

Web 2.0 for Corps - Roll Stream Pics


WiMax the Next Internet Frontier

An intriguing forecast that I came across after being referred to WFS.org from the Cornish Futuring book was that WiMAX Networks Will Soon Create Country-Wide Wireless Internet Access. *smiles* The article went on to say "—Often described as “Wi-Fi on steroids,” WiMAX (Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access) will cover entire countries with a vibrant, high-speed wireless communications network. Internet access and other data and video applications will be available anywhere with many applications for automobiles."

This is significant because Wi-Fi has a range of 30 yards while, WiMax has a range of 30 miles. This is enough to cover a small city with one antenna. *grins* The reason why this is significant is that WiMax will overcome the hurdle of controlling vehicles and personal robots via the internet. In the future, with WiMax you could literally send your robot to the store and with a webcam transmitting signals back to you. *chuckles* There are two limitations fuel or energy and costs. Fuel cells are getting a lot of research attention, which promises to extend their life.

Also, in the last presidential state of the union address, there was mention of bringing the internet to rural areas. Surely, WiMax would be cheaper than running cable.*grins* Also, Intel has partnered with a company called Clear which is already offering hotspot devices in malls and Intel is now building WiMax capability into even its lowest cost microprocessors. This is surely going to be game changer.


*waves*


Jim Thomas

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Personal Flying Vehicles - Delphi vs NGT

20 Years From Now: Personal flying vehicles will inter the mainstream – We already have the Terrafugia. In 20 years, I see the cost being reasonable and most political, legal and technical issues being resolved. There will be lots of places to fly and I can see people living in areas that they can only fly to. *grins* Environmentally, it may not be as acceptable having unexplored habitats invaded, but I don’t see how you can stop someone if they want to park on a mountain peak.*chuckles*

I would use as series of NGT events because this technology has already had an early product developed and now needs barriers to full introduction removed.

Legally a person can own a car or a plane so this supports ownership of a hybrid of the two. *grins* Also, the FAA approved the Terrafugia to fly. Technically, MIT’s team has proven that it is feasible to build the base product so this supports its success. *grins* Economically, the cost will have to be cut in half for the average family to afford one. Also, a vast number of maintenance facilities and convenient fueling facilities will have to be built and many mechanics trained to support them. Homes or garages would need to be modified to store them.

I believe that a combination of closed collaboration and open collaboration would help to evaluate the hurdles. *grins* The submittal of the initial solutions should be submitted anonymously, but peer reviewed equally and openly according to the NGT process which can occur relatively quickly. At a minimum for NGT, submittal of 3 X5 cards into a box and having the facilitator coordinate their review with the groups is all that is needed to get started.  A series of events for individual issues would be pursued until all hurdles are addressed.*smiles*


References:

http://decide-guide.com/nominal-group-technique/

http://www.mycoted.com/Nominal_Group_Technique

http://www.mycoted.com/Improved_Nominal_Group_Technique

http://books.google.com/books?id=cpc7CJH1-s8C&pg=PA226&lpg=PA226&dq=classical+nominal+group&source=bl&ots=nJbnATGo5F&sig=7SS8COxMw1utHsbl9MO6YDYLEKg&hl=en&ei=VNtjTY6jDs-btwfGpdT6Cw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=9&sqi=2&ved=0CD4Q6AEwCA#v=onepage&q=classical%20nominal%20group&f=false

Monday, February 21, 2011

Innovation Ideas - 10 and 20 years from now

Innovation Ideas:

10 Years: Auto-Pilot Vehicles – Having worked in the automobile sector for some time, I know that this is feasible. We already have a brain(s) in the car, cruise control, backup sensors and On-star. We simply have to upgrade the brain, put the sensors in the front and let On-star take command of the wheel.*chuckles* We even already have cars that won’t start unless you pass the breathalyzer. *grins* We just need the system to take over and drive people home. *grins*



20 Years: Personal flying vehicles – We already have the Terrafugia. In 20 years, I see the cost being reasonable and most political, legal and technical issues being resolved. There will be lots of places to fly and I can see people living in areas that they can only fly to. *grins* Environmentally, it may not be as acceptable having unexplored habitats invaded, but I don’t see how you can stop someone if they want to park on a mountain peak.*chuckles*

*waves*

Jim Thomas

TED Video - Think Tank Should Consider

 The rise of Personal Robots was a very intriguing video *smiles*.  I think it should be examined further by our Think Tank for two reasons 1) It expounds on the evolution of social skills in robots and 2) because it examines the concept of how youth view the integration of virtual worlds with real worlds.  One of the challenges that we have with the entrance of robots into mainstream use is the lack of sociability.  The video points out that in the past we have always associated robots the interaction with things and not people. Therefore, the socialization of robots appears to be precursor to their acceptance. *grins* As futurists we should be watching for breakthroughs in socialization as a signal that they are about to emerge. Cynthia Breazeal's team developed a robot with primitive social skills, which should that it is possible for them to interact with humans. *grins*  She also compared the robot interaction with a computer and revealed that humans named the robots, dressed them and waved them good bye, which showed that given social skills robots can become acceptable companions.

The second major point that Breazeal made was that children are able to interact with robots and virtual worlds almost seamlessly.  This is important because children can be good indicators of acceptability and their generation will likely see personal robots in action.  Also it identifies a new possible market for video games that have robot companions.  The multi billion dollar gaming market could very well drive the introduction of social robots into the mainstream. *grins*  If this occurs and children grow up with robot companions via their games, the adoption hurdle is easily eliminated. *grins*  Thoughts?

*waves*  

Jim Thomas

Sunday, February 20, 2011

2010 Horizon Report - Technology to Watch

Per the Horizon report, Mobile computing is truly a technology that has finally come to the forefront.  This is particularly the case with Smart Phones.  With the advent of iPhone and Android API's being openly distributed to the developer community, we will surely see the applications that we have only dreamed of. *smiles* I fully agree that this is a technology to watch.  I can already see it being used for commercial purchases and transactions.  Why carry a credit card when you have your phone. *grins*  Why look for a hot-spot when you have your phone. *cheers* I have been watching this trend for over 10 years and for the first time, I can actually do video calls. *cheers*  Also for the very first time, I am actually able to develop phone apps and I plan to use this skill in support of my doctoral research.

Mobile commerce is still not where it needs to be in the US.  This technology is impacted by legal issues as it will require cellular carriers to reach agreement with financial institutions on who really owns mobile commerce.  Just as we transfer money to our debit cards we will one day be able to transfer money to our mobile bank accounts.  The problem is that the banks, credit card companies and cellular carriers all want to control the $$$. As a consumer it does not really matter as long as I can buy the loaf of bread*grins*. Until then I dare not lose my debit card.*chuckles*

*waves*

Jim Thomas

2010 Horizon Report - Trend

Per the Horizon report, the technologies we use are increasingly cloud-based, and our notions of IT support are decentralized. As and IT consultant, my last two clients were fortune 500 companies and they both recently changed their strategy from considering cloud based solutions to requiring that all new third party systems be cloud-based. Its amazing how fast they assimilate when they see the cost savings.*grins*  The ROI is very simple.  They no longer have to support servers! *chuckles* This reduces help desk support, system admin support, and upgrade and deployment support. As companies squeeze every cent out of their IT budgets, this trend will be seen as a no-brainer. *grins* The security hurdle is not that hard to overcome, but business customers will have to get used to waiting for enhancement requests because they will no longer be able to waive their magic wand and see a deployment the next week.*grins*

I am predicting that the Cloud model will be very slow on accepting enhancement requests.  The challenges that this trend faces are mostly political within organizations.  Change is often met with resistance.*grins*  IT organizations currently control large data centers, which have become somewhat of a power base for certain IT leaders.  The cloud threatens to eliminate most of the data centers and some IT leaders are uncomfortable with giving up that much power and control.  Nevertheless, the struggle to compete will likely force them assimilate eventually.

The only caveat that I can see is that their will likely need to be analysis done around network redundancy for mission critical applications.  "Hospitals come to mind." *grins*


*waves*

Jim Thomas
Comments from my instructor whom I think very highly of:

The theoretical background for the project would include at a minimum,
systems theory, complex decision making and the feedback benefits that occur
during communication. The testing will require a comparison of the same
project with and without the app at different types of businesses and
involving differing levels of project complexity. So you must narrow the
focus so that you don't have to test for everything under the sun.
Anne-Marie

Late Nights

Its has been a while since I really did programming.  Although, I often lead development teams to victory, I seldom do "hands on coding" these days.  Well now that I have a dissertation topic, I have started building the prototype that I will use for my research.  I was having a hard time determining if I should build it in Conjective C for the Unix/IOS used by Apple iPhones or Linux/Java used by Android phones.  There are also many other platforms such as Palm OS, and Blackberry.  So, I decided to go with Android first and then move it to other platforms as necessary.  Regardless, its going to be bitter-sweet learning to program all over again using these new dialects.

Dissertation Topic

My dissertation research:

A well-designed mobile phone application that allows users to enter certain

parameters into a form or wizard that in turn calculates high level costs, duration and ROI for custom software development projects that helps business leaders with software business case development or project selection decisions.

Null hypothesis: Does not help with business case decisions nor project selection decisions.